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Kansas State on opening day

The first few weeks of college football are filled with mismatches that provide us with a great opportunity to make some big money before the books get a grasp on things. We are starting to focus in on another Big 12 team for an opening day blowout and that team is Kansas State. Aside from the fact that they are a Big 12 team, they are strong at home, they have an NFL quarterback in Josh Freeman, they have loaded up with JUCO transfers on defense and they are playing a team who expects to get blown out. North Texas opened up at Oklahoma last year where they took it on the chin… 79-10!!! Even all the way back to the late 90’s when my man played quarterback for a terrible UNLV football team, North Texas was brought in as a confidence builder for the Rebels and the Reb’s blew them out. This spread is a light 24… KState is going to do it to these guys.

No Surprise & No Big Deal in North Jersey

It is quite ironic that I just begun to write for this outstanding operation upon the premise of my clairvoyance. Most sports bettors here in Vegas and many throughout the world know me, Patrick Bartucci, as the best and the most consistent PAC-10 Football Handicapper since 2001.

When I accepted this wonderful opportunity a month ago, I clearly told two members of the VegasSportsline brass that I firmly believed that All-Time Interception King Brett Favre would become a member of the New Jersey Jets when the dust settled from the fiasco he created.

Don’t get me wrong. Favre is a tough guy and I have appreciated his grit for the past 16 years. He has overcome much in his personal and professional life—alcohol & drug addiction and numerous tragic and untimely deaths within his family.

I remember his first game (when he relieved Don Majowski) and I most certainly remember his last game (when he irresponsibly tossed away the NFC Championship in overtime @ Lambeau Field.)

That being said, I remain objective with regard to his performance. I always have.

Baylor @ Wake Forest

Wake Forest has developed into a solid ACC football program and they are poised for another winning season.  They return a number of key starters on both sides of the ball and this program has a winning attitude nowadays.  I’ve been watching a lot of college football over the past few weeks as the various Fox Sports stations have been showing replays of last year’s games.  Last week I saw Baylor play twice… Texas Tech and Kansas both treated them like the scout team on a Wednesday afternoon practice.  This is the perfect team for Wake Forest to open up with because Wake expects to win and Baylor expects to lose.  The line is going up so if you are interested in this one you should book it asap.  The line opened at 10.5 and is currently upwards of 12… I like Wake all the way up to -14.  It is very possible that Wake wins by 4 touchdowns.

NCAA opening weekend line updates (Florida -35, Michigan -4)

As expected, the Florida Gators line is already being posted upwards of 35 points… do we still like it?  Absolutely.  We like the Gators to make a run at the BCS Championship, we like Tebow to win the Heisman and we like the Gators to completely dominate Hawaii on opening day in The Swamp.

Another line showing some interesting movement is Michigan, opening up at home against Utah.  I have heard various opinions on this game, however, my personal opinion has been the same from the very beginning… Michigan is going to win and cover at home on opening day.  I was shocked that the line opened as low as 7.  Recently it has actually gone down to Michigan -4!!!

Trade Deadline Facts

1.  Despite doing NOTHING, The Tampa Bay Devil Rays may be the largest benefactors of the recent trade activity in Major League Baseball.  Their chief threat in the AL EAST (Boston) was forced to trade away the AL’s most clutch hitter to the National League.  Meanwhile, Tampa’s other AL EAST rival (Yankees) continue to buy lumber yet continue to lack heart sans role players.  This is the element which kept them balanced and which made them great in the late 1990’s.  How ironc because Tampa somewhat resembles the 1996 Yankees.  The Rays have pitching, speed, power, defense, and grit.  They bunt, they move runners, and they are a humble bunch.  Look for them to win the AL EAST and give the Angels a fair fight for the pennant.

2.  How about those Angels!!!  I’ve been saying it since April—they are the best team in baseball and they are going to win the World Series. 

3.  Manny Ramirez certainly doesn’t hurt the Dodgers, but he won’t help them as much as you think.  The lineup around him is weak.  In Boston, he was immersed in a batting order loaded with talent.  In LA, he is sandwiched between ground ball hitters and strikeout kings.   He will be rendered largely ineffective when smart NL skippers employ the intentional walk.

4.  Ken Griffey Jr is a nice addition to the White Sox but his arrival may disrupt the chemistry of the South-siders.   Ozzie is going to be challenged in everyday operations, with regard to his starting lineup.  Still, Griffey may find the fountain of youth in Chicago this fall.  Would be a great story.

Oklahoma State on opening day

Oklahoma State is a team to take a look at on opening day as they take on Washington State as a 6 point favorite.  Oklahoma State is a solid Big 12 team with a big time offense.  Last year they scored at least 40 points in 6 of their 13 games including a 49-33 win over Indiana in the Insight Bowl.  Amazingly, their offense produced 3,161 yards passing and 3,161 rushing last year.  Returning QB Zac Robinson is a true weapon and this offense will come into week 1 ready to  score points.

Washington State is in a rebuilding mode with a new coach and a new quarterback.  Even with a record breaking 4 year starter at QB last year Washington State struggled to a 5-7 record… it’s going to be a lot harder to win 5 games this year and opening up against a high-octane Big 12 opponent is a tough way to start.

Oklahoma State is going to score touchdowns on opening day… check them out as a small favorite.

Opening lines for college football week 1 have been set

In our last post we showed you 3 games that we were interested in and the lines have been set in our favor. We said Colorado would lay between 10 and 14… the line was posted at 12. USC and Florida are both giving up less than we expected so we are definitely on board with those plays as well.

Start getting familiar with the opening day matchups and lines now… here is a link to the numbers:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

College Football opening week is 5 weeks away and we’ve already got our eyes on a few games

It’s never too early to start getting familiar with the upcoming college football season. For the past few weeks we have been reading the preview magazines, checking out schedules, watching ESPN U and talking things through with other wiseguys. So far we have come up with the following…

Colorado opens up with Colorado State and while rivalries can sometimes be very competitive, these two teams are clearly moving in different directions and playing at completely different levels. Colorado finished the season strong and will be a contender in one of the nation’s top conferences, the Big 12. Colorado State has very little talent, size or speed and they will not be competitive in the sub-par Mountain West. We like Colorado to win this game with a score somewhere in the neighborhood of 38-14. We are expecting the books to put this one out with Colorado as a 10 to 14 point chalk.

We have also been talking about 2 of the big boys… we like USC to go into Virginia and win big. They will be faster and more organized than the depleted Virginia Cavs on opening day. Last year SC opened up at home against a cupcake and won in a slow, boring game. We expect a much stronger performance being on the road and in the national spotlight on this years opening day. If you remember how they dominated Virginia Tech on the road for opening day a few years back you should know that they will be coming to play. They were only giving up 17 at VTech that year… we are figuring the number might be between 21 and 24 at Virginia this year. Anything higher than that and you might want to reconsider.

The other one we are waiting to get a number on it the Florida Gators. The Gators are going to contend for a National Title, again. The system is in place, the chemistry is there and the Gators have big time athletes. On opening day they will play host to a Hawaii team with a new coach, new quarterback and no chance of being competitive. Hawaii is going to try to run their gimmicky little run and shoot without the talent or experience they would need to be successful in any game, let alone being 6 time zones away and inside The Swamp and up against some of the best “Down South” athletes you could ever imagine. Georgia’s defense physically punished the undefeated Colt Brennan Hawaii team showing that the caliber of athlete is completely different in the SEC. Hawaii is in for a very long day and we like the Gators as 35 point favorites.

There have been a few other games under discussion and we will continue to keep you updated as we figure everything out.

The Inside Scoop

For years VegasSportsline has offered a free email newsletter called The Inside Scoop. With a new football season rapidly approaching we are reinventing The Inside Scoop and offering it as a free daily blog. Check in regularly for free picks, sports betting tips and insight & analysis from some of the top sports bettors in Las Vegas.

NFL Total Team Wins

The following lines are from the Wynn sportsbook…

Arizona Cardinals : 8 : under -125

Atlanta Falcons : 4.5 : over -145

Baltimore Ravens : 6 : under -115

Buffalo Bills : 8 : under -135

Carolina Panthers : 8 : under -140

Chicago Bears : 8 : under -125

Cincinnati Bengals : 7.5 : under -140

Cleveland Browns : 8.5 : under -125

Dallas Cowboys : 10.5 : over -150

Denver Broncos : 8 : under -125

Detroit Lions : 6.5 : over -140

Green Bay Packers : 8 : over -120

Houston Texans : 7.5 : over -110

Indianapolis Colts : 11 : under -155

Jacksonville Jaguars : 10 : over -130

Kansas City Chiefs : 6 : over -120

Miami Dolphins : 5.5 : under -115

Minnesota Vikings : 8 : over -150

New England Patriots : 12.5 : over -115

New Orleans Saints : 8.5 : over -170

New York Giants : 9 : under -135

New York Jets : 7 : over -155

Oakland Raiders : 6 : over -140

Philadelphia Eagles : 8.5 : over -155

Pittsburgh Steelers : 9 : over -130

San Diego Chargers : 11 : under -135

San Francisco 49ers : 6.5 : over -110

Seattle Seahawks : 8.5 : over -160

St. Louis Rams : 6.5 : over -140

Tampa Bay Buccaneers : 8 : over -110

Tennessee Titans : 8 : over -115

Washington Redskins : 7.5 : over -120